Will EU merge with NATO aims? Germany at strategic cross road !

In the aftermath of the elections that were held in East Germany (Saxonia and Thuringia on September 2^nd ), which on September 22^nd will be followed by elections in the state of Brandenburg, a major shift in the political landscape of Germany is taking place. In those two elections the right- wing AFD (Alternative für Deutschland) obtained in each state more than 30% (as it was expected), but more than the governing coalition in Berlin all together, while the left party BSW (Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht), which was created as a party since less than one year, on the spot received  16% in Thuringia and 12% in Saxonia. In the Brandenburg election, the SPD came first with 30.9%, ahead of the AFD with 29.2%, the BSW with 13.5% came third, ahead of the CDU with 12.1%.  Greenies, the Left and also the Liberals are not elected into the parliament. While the Greenies and the Liberal FDP got smashed in Thuringia, the CDU obtained 30% and the Social Democrats (SPD) shrunk to just 10 % of the vote.

The electoral results reflect a lot of anger and frustration among the German electorate. The main causes for this are the Ukraine war, the uncontrolled migration and a growing feeling of personal insecurity, on the streets but also in an economic sense: A major part of the German population, especially in Eastern Germany, is against the Ukraine war and wishes that peace negotiations take place with Russia rather than sending more weapons to Ukraine.  Many feel alienated by the daily propaganda in the media, according to which Germany and the EU side by side with the U.K. and the U.S. fight for “our freedom and democratic values” in Ukraine. Another reason for the recent voter results is the effect of the economic crisis in Germany and the EU. In light of the “sanctions” policy, which coincided with Germany’s decision to completely cut off from Russian gas and oil. The German society is facing a huge increase in energy prices, due to sanctions which it imposed on Russia, as result of which Germany became “victimized” and suffers from the consequences of a war, which the Ukraine is more and more losing on the battlefield. The collective West, i.e. EU, UK and the US with their continuous debate to send Ukraine even more “lethal weapons”, long range missiles that strike deep into Russian territory, pushes this line in order to prolong the “perception” that this “war will be won by Ukraine.” They are  unwilling to take the warnings of the Russian President even serious. Hence there is a growing fear is that the “West”, that is NATO, is drawn directly into the conflict.

Germany has become economic victim of Western sanctions against Russia

In an interesting documentation “Quo vadis Germany” (“Nachdenkseiten”) a month ago, featuring among others the grand- nephew of Otto von Bismarck (the business man Alexander von Bismarck) and Dr. Alexander Rahr, a well- known political “bridge builder” in the German -Russia dialogue during the last 30 years,  Rahr underlined that Germany has been the most dramatically hit as result of the insane sanction policy: this includes skyrocketing energy prices as well huge inflation prices, while more and more business firms want to leave the country.

Rahr spoke about the real big challenges in front of us which is not “freedom”, but “how we feed our population.” In the next 25 years there will be a “world population of 10bn people. We will have to face food crisis, geopolitical confrontation, migration, and lack of water resources,” Rahr stressed.

Another interesting observation was made by Alexander von Bismarck, the grand-nephew of former Reichskanzler Otto von Bismarck (1815-1898, from 1871 to 1890, first Chancellor of the German Empire. A scandal broke out recently because the current German Foreign Minister A. Baerbock had taken down Bismarck’s portrait in the Foreign Office’s meeting room, called the “Bismarck Room”, in order to emphasize her feminist foreign policy.)  He emphasized that in light of the sanctions “which we in Germany agreed to,” so as to punish Russia, we ended up as “idiots”, decoupling from Russian gas and oil, but buying gas and oil from India today at a price increase of 45 -50%. According to von Bismarck “The sanctions against Russia have hit the people in Germany in particular on a day to day basis with the consequence that they have to pay extremely high energy prices. For many companies this has meant shutdown, so ultimately the sanctions – have been directed against the German people.”

He stated further that “with the Ukraine war and sanctions, we got excluded from the real political world: Chemical production in the last 2 years has shrunk by 23 %. (!)The huge firm BASF is shifting parts of its enterprise in Germany to the US, which is offering even credits, or to China. In the second quarter of this year the energy costs rose by 26-30 % .” Von Bismarck warned that there is the threat of “deindustrialization” of Germany.”  Of course, one should add that due to almost three years of Greenie ecological policy in the government and the debate about renewable energy and turn away from nuclear energy, the collapse of infrastructure in Germany is taking place at a rapid pace.

The recent collapse of the “Carola-bridge” in the city of Dresden is an illustrative example. In Germany, there are a good 40,000 bridges in the federal highway network, in addition to over 60,000 municipal bridges and over 25,000 railroad bridges. The Carola-bridge is one of the municipal structures for which the city of Dresden is responsible. It was built during the GDR era and opened to traffic in 1971. Parts of it have already been renovated, and the renovation of the now collapsed bridge was planned for 2025, the Swiss daily NZZ reported.

The collapse of bridges and roads is so massive, that the Director of the Cologne based “Institute der Wirtschaft,” Dr. Michael Hüther demanded an extra “special fund” that should be used to rebuild infrastructure in Germany. Indeed a contrast to the 100bn Euro special fund, which Chancellor Scholz promised two years ago to finance the Ukraine war  and weapons supply. Hüther said, according to NZZ ( Neue Züricher Zeitung), that the main cause is that the country has lived off its substance for far too long and has invested too little. For twenty years, the state’s investment rate has been significantly lower than that of all its European partners, said Hüther.

Western efforts to “manage perception”

The recent elections are just the tip of the iceberg. With the Ukraine losing ground -according to military specialists, on the battlefield in Kursk and Donbass which goes along with growing battle fatigue inside Ukraine,  a huge amount of draft dodgers ( 90.000) during the last 4 months and a rate of 10.000 Ukrainians per week in the recent weeks, trying to get into the  EU neighboring countries(!) Over all approximately 4 Mio Ukrainian refugees are living in the EU(!).  This all happens in a moment where  the US and EU are engaged in a desperate effort to “manage reality” and run the  “perception game” which suggests that the Ukraine will be “victorious”. The perception game is directly linked to the upcoming U.S. presidential elections and those who hype for more military aid at this point, calculate that a Kamala Harris victory would ensure the continuation of the war.

Fact is that the Kursk invasion August 7^th which was based to a large extent on US reconnaissance assistance from Satellites that was given to the Ukrainian armed forces, as well as tactical operational assistance from the UK – has militarily failed (!). The Russian Army is driving the Ukrainians out from the territory while they are gaining at the same time more and more territory in Eastern Ukraine. According to the well- known German General Harald Kujat the “military situation on the ground will not dramatically change” even not with long range weapons, which the collective West, the US, EU and NATO demand to be deployed as  “gamechanger.”

It just suffices to look at the series of conferences that took place during the last 10 days, all marked by a very hectic atmosphere that is driven by the wishful delusion to ignore the fact that the ship is sinking:  One example is the debate which took place 10 days ago at an F.T. festival in London between CIA Director William Burns and MI6 Director Sir Richard Moore. This first public debate of that kind within 75 years!  During the debate both intelligence chiefs went out of their way in praising the “audacious moves” by the Ukrainians in Kursk (Richard Moore), which the latter qualified as a “game changer” and the “Ukrainian smart military tactical operations” (Burns). So much to their “perception game”.

There were also meetings between U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken who some days ago met in Kiev President Zelenskyy and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The purpose of the meeting was to prepare a discussion  with President Biden so as to obtain the formal agreement that would allow massive deployment of British long-range weapons, storm shadow missiles, as well as US ATAMCS and JASSM, with the capability to strike deep into Russia.  One should just add that in the last days a huge meeting of the NATO Military Committee took place in Prague, which was followed by a big conference organized by the “Pinchuk Foundation” in Kiew September 15/16, featuring all those politicians and representatives from the US, NATO and Europe as well as Kiev government, that unanimously push the line that the Ukraine will win, if they obtain more long-range missiles.

President Putin drawing the “red line” – Russia means it seriously

In the midst of this hype President V. Putin in an interview, at the sidelines of the “United Cultures Forum” (Sept 12), made a clear statement, which seems to have “un- nerved” many in the US (Pentagon) and Europe. Being asked about the recent statements that had been given at a very high level in the US and the UK “that the Kiew regime will be allowed to strike targets deep inside Russia using Western long – range weapons! Apparently, this decision is either about to be made, or has already been made,” the president replied:

„What we are seeing is an attempt to substitute notions. Because this is not a question of whether the Kiev regime is allowed or not allowed to strike targets on Russia territory. It is already carrying out strikes using unmanned aerial vehicles and other means. But using Western made long- range precision weapons is a completely different story(….)  The fact is- I have already mentioned this, and any expert both in our country and in the West, will confirm this- the Ukrainian army is not capable of using cutting- edge – high precision – long range systems supplied by the West. They cannot do that. These weapons are impossible to employ without intelligence data (sic) from satellites which Ukraine does not have. This can only be done using the European Union’s satellites or US satellites – in general NATO satellites. This is the first point.”

„The second point – perhaps the most important – the key point even -is that only NATO military personnel can assign flight missions to these missile systems.  Ukrainian servicemen cannot do this. Therefore, it is not a question of allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons or not. It is about deciding whether NATO countries become directly involved in the military conflict or not. If this decision is made, it will mean nothing short of direct involvement- it will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are parties to the war in Ukraine. This will mean their direct involvement in the conflict, and it will clearly change the very essence, the very nature of this conflict dramatically. This will mean that NATO countries- the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia (!!!). And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.”

One should note the fact that most of the leading western press has so far n o t printed in full length Putin’s unmistakable warning.

NATO-ization of Germany and the EU

An element which highlights what the fervent push for getting NATO more involved in German and EU politics, was illustrated by a story which the Swiss daily NZZ (Neue Züricher Zeitung) reported about on 13^th September. NZZ described the succession fight that has recently broken out in the prestigious “Munich Security Conference” (MSC) which is the most famous forum for strategic and security debates internationally in Germany. It was reported that the acting MSC chairman, Christoph Heusgen (former advisor of Chancellor Merkel) who is MSC chairman since 2 years, is supposed  against his own will to be replaced by NATO General Secretary G. Stoltenberg. Stoltenberg, being from Norway, is known for being the strongest defender of a prolonged military war in Ukraine. The amazing detail which was given by NZZ, was to point to Wolfgang Ischinger – predecessor to Heusgen and former German ambassador to the US, who is also known for his vociferous support of prolonging the Ukraine war, who stated in a board meeting of the MSC, that the General Secretary of NATO would be “without comparison the best option” to succeed Heusgen. The ousting of Heusgen, according to NZZ, was linked to Heusgen’s statements about Hamas, his plea for a two- state solution and his remarks about the need to engage more in dialogue with Russia. This apparently has greatly annoyed the US and the North Atlantic community.

One should add to all this the hectic activities of EU Commission President von der Leyen, who has just presented the new list of 26 EU -Commissioners, that still awaits approval from the EU parliament. In a “coup like” fashion von der Leyen forced the French EU commissioner Thierry Breton (EU commissioner for the EU internal market and known for being a strong advocate of a stronger EU industrial policy), out of his post. Even more important is von der Leyen’s personal engagement to put former Estonian PM Kaja Kallas, a staunch Russophobe, to succeed Borrell and become “High Representative of EU foreign policy Affairs”, as well as for “Defense”, while at the same time she nominated Lithuanian Andrius Kubilius for the newly created post of  “Commissioner for Armament and Space”.  This is an attempt to bring the EU under full NATO control.

(updated 24.09.24)